China began its decennial 2010 Population Census today as a small army of more than 6 million enumerators fanned out across the country. The census will be held November 1-10 with a follow-up sample survey to evaluate the accuracy of the count and responses. No, China doesn’t have 37 percent of the world’s population but China and India, taken together, do with a population of 1.3 billion and 1.2 billion, respectively. And, India is in the midst of its houselisting and preliminary headcount in preparation for the 2011 Census to be held in February. The really interesting thing is that both countries will release their counts at nearly the same time, India at the end of March and China at the end of April.
China will include expatriate residents with more than six months residence for the first time – there are said to be about 100,000 in Shanghai alone. The country has some special problems in conducting its count. Millions of unauthorized migrants, the “floating population,” as well as unauthorized births previously concealed as a result of the government’s stringent population policy may evade enumeration. Additionally, some light should also be shed on the country’s greatly skewed sex ratio at birth due to the preference for male offspring. Officially, there are about 120 male births to every 100 female instead of the global norm of 105. The official estimate of the sex ratio of the country’s 0- to-4 age group in 2008 is 123 males per 100 females.
When these two population giants takes a census, the global population figure undergoes at least some shift. The 2000 Census count in the U.S. was about 7 million higher than expected, or 2.5 percent. Given that world population is growing by about 83 million per year, a similar result in China and India would push world population to reach 7 billion early next year rather than next fall as has been projected. Of course, the effect could also be to move the expected 7 billion to 2012 if counts are lower than anticipated. “The Day of the 7 Billion” was and always has been a moveable feast.
A man provided information to census workers at his home in Beijing on Monday.
